The Paris Agreement: Can We Keep Temperatures from Rising above 2 Degrees Celsius or Should We Aim for 1.5?
The Paris Agreement was adopted on December 12, 2015, by parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), with the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, while also pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
For years, scientists have been warning of the disastrous consequences of exceeding the 2-degree threshold. A rise in global temperatures above this limit could lead to catastrophic changes in the Earth’s climate, including more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, and storms, as well as rising sea levels that threaten to inundate low-lying areas and displace millions of people worldwide.
Despite these dire warnings, many experts now argue that a 2-degree target is not ambitious enough, and that we should aim for a more aggressive goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius instead. This revised target is supported by small island states and developing nations, who are already experiencing the devastating effects of climate change and are calling for urgent action.
So, can we realistically achieve a 1.5-degree target, or are we already destined to exceed the 2-degree threshold? The answer is not clear-cut, but there are several key factors that will determine our ability to meet either target.
One of the most important factors is the level of greenhouse gas emissions that we continue to produce. Even if we were to completely halt all emissions today, the Earth would still continue to warm for many years due to the existing buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. As such, we must take action to reduce emissions as quickly and comprehensively as possible.
Another important factor is the level of investment in clean energy technologies, such as solar and wind power, as well as energy-efficient buildings and transportation. These technologies are already making strides in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but we will need to continue to invest in them at a much larger scale to achieve either the 1.5-degree or 2-degree target.
Finally, we must also address the issue of adaptation, which refers to the measures we take to cope with the effects of climate change that are already unavoidable. This includes everything from building seawalls to protect coastal communities from rising sea levels, to developing drought-resistant crops to help farmers cope with changing weather patterns.
In the end, achieving either the 1.5-degree or 2-degree target will require significant political will, technological innovation, and international cooperation. But it is clear that the stakes are too high to do nothing. By taking action now, we can help ensure a livable future for ourselves and for generations to come.
